New Report Finds Declines in Cocaine, Alcohol Use among Reasons for Major Drop in NYC Homicide Rates during 1990s

New York, NY — A new, groundbreaking report found that decline in the use of cocaine and alcohol and an increase in public assistance led to a significant drop in homicides in New York City during the 1990s. The report found that key factors such as substance use prevention and the expansion of social services may have propelled the decline. Using cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 to 1999, the report examined 8,820 recorded firearm-related homicides, noting a that decline in cocaine-market activity was associated with a falling homicide rate for people aged 15-24 years and for those aged 35 years or older. Also, decreased levels of alcohol consumption were associated with a reduced rate of homicide for those aged 25-34 years. The study will appear in the June issue of the American Journal of Public Health. For an advance copy of the report, please contact Andrew J. Martin, NYAM Director of Communications, at 212.822-7285 or via e-mail at amartin@nyam.org.

The report, Investigating the Effect of Social Changes on Age-Specific Gun-Related Homicide Rates in New York City during the 1990s, was released by The New York Academy of Medicine (NYAM). Among other things, the report found that:

• Declines in an indirect indicator of cocaine-market activity (percent of accidental deaths with positive toxicology reports for cocaine per precinct) was particularly associated with a decrease in homicide for people aged 15-24 years and for those aged 35 years or older. Moreover, shifts in the cocaine trade from open-air, competitive, free-for-all arenas into a structured underground economy decreased the need for highly-armed, violent youth that acted as sellers, and transformed the cocaine market into a less violent, more organized trade;
• The establishment of a special tax on hard liquor and beer in the mid-1980s may have contributed to lower alcohol use in the 1990s, lowering the risk of alcohol abuse and dependence in young adulthood, and eventually lowering the risk of violent victimization among chronic alcohol abusers; and
• An increase in the proportion of the population that received welfare was associated with fewer homicides among those 25 years old or older. More generous and expansive social welfare policies may reduce stressors in the environment and provide income supplements to remove people from criminal income-generating activities. This may be particularly important for people in their twenties, who are more likely to be on the road to desistance from crime and in the process of forming families.

"While community policing has been advanced as having a major role in the decline in homicides during the 1990s, in fact, other major factors including the decline of the cocaine epidemic, taxes on alcohol and an increase in public assistance accounted for a greater proportion of this downward trend," said Magdalena Cerd??, MPH, DrPH, an epidemiologist with NYAM and co-author of the report. "This major report provides insights as we witness a recent increase in homicides in New York City."

About NYAM - The New York Academy of Medicine (NYAM) has been advancing the health of people in cities since 1847. Drawing on the expertise of diverse partners worldwide and more than 2,000 elected Fellows from across the professions, our current priorities are to create environments in cities that support healthy aging, to strengthen systems that prevent disease and promote the public's health, and to implement interventions that eliminate health disparities. For more information, please visit www.nyam.org.

Posted on May 5, 2010

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Contact:
Andrew J. Martin
Director of Communications
The New York Academy of Medicine
1216 Fifth Avenue
New York, New York 10029
212-822-7285
amartin@nyam.org

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